Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 20.212923 23.539862 27.552733 32.848541 39.812053 48.900903 62.110388
2025-01-19 15.493253 19.094021 23.848407 30.846657 41.397748 57.733162 87.541902
2025-01-26 14.882075 19.321886 25.710928 36.221108 54.662914 89.957208 179.918514
2025-02-02 13.739172 18.472620 25.700721 38.598342 64.118717 123.105145 339.860029
2025-02-09 12.036356 16.475535 23.467297 36.504715 64.137426 136.007354 484.233767
2025-02-16 11.301834 15.830450 23.256785 37.949401 72.262765 179.276008 1067.757566
2025-02-23 10.455950 14.881949 22.349414 37.773168 76.563999 217.500378 2429.687318
2025-03-02 9.739266 14.052603 21.510794 37.512758 80.599754 263.145028 8204.916583
2025-03-09 9.228655 13.506306 21.095888 38.059572 87.366588 340.021472 874350.015779
2025-03-16 8.540279 12.586464 19.857674 36.448868 86.638159 373.230449 NaN
2025-03-23 8.104187 12.065533 19.318486 36.383106 91.252900 466.294631 NaN
2025-03-30 7.539073 11.270876 18.156252 34.564302 88.717103 490.869670 NaN
2025-04-06 6.919132 10.363643 16.741286 32.028784 83.097923 477.788086 NaN
2025-04-13 6.412858 9.631055 15.619365 30.093898 79.294751 482.621299 NaN
2025-04-20 6.597234 10.156455 17.094904 35.266539 108.960595 1387.169783 NaN
2025-04-27 6.499813 10.149201 17.458365 37.549811 129.044027 3501.661453 NaN
2025-05-04 6.101169 9.540856 16.449652 35.539079 123.596210 3736.629943 NaN
2025-05-11 5.969557 9.434868 16.539550 36.926798 140.559561 13020.187070 NaN
2025-05-18 5.746809 9.135706 16.162587 36.757570 147.562263 45321.688874 NaN
2025-05-25 5.536785 8.847828 15.783529 36.507483 154.134265 962819.039605 NaN
2025-06-01 5.387221 8.669643 15.641081 37.032582 168.094439 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 5.133300 8.268761 14.940388 35.485413 162.699301 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 4.976941 8.055827 14.670051 35.422218 171.345523 NaN NaN